Don’t Go to Afghanistan Uninvited
The British Empire (BE) ruled mightily in the 19th century until it experienced a massacre in Afghanistan. The fate of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was no different in the 20th. It faced military devastation and it disintegrated soon after. In the 21st century, America is pulling out of Afghanistan after twenty year misadventure. As a result, soon, China will replace America as the number one economy in the world. A good advice: Don’t go to Afghanistan uninvited! The empire or the superpower status will be gone in no time.
Don’t Go to Afghanistan Uninvited
All three superpowers of their time went into Afghanistan uninvited. Some may say circumstances were justifiable for Americans. Yet, why America remained in Afghanistan twenty years may have left a bitter taste across the region.
Don’t Brits Know Now!
The 1842 retreat from Kabul took place during the First Anglo-Afghan War. It is also called the massacre of Elphinstone’s army. In 2013, a writer for The Economist called the retreat “the worst British military disaster until the Fall of Singapore exactly a century later.”
Russians Paid the Price and Lost the USSR
The Soviet invasion, that was based on the Brezhnev Doctrine, is believed to have contributed to the Soviet collapse. In 1988, the Soviet Union signed an accord with the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and agreed to withdraw its troops. Three years later the world witnessed the disintegration of the USSR and its replacement with the Russian Federation of today. The Afghanistan debacle simply finished the “evil empire” off, as Ronald Reagan put it.
Americans Should Have Known Better
The Bush (43) Administration in the US went to Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, as if history did not matter. Consequently, it caused irreparable damage to America in the long run. The tally is already clear to the naked eye on the twentieth anniversary when America withdraws from Afghanistan. Now, the US is projected to lose the “sole economic superpower of the world” status to China in less than a decade.
Turks and New Turkey: They Are in Afghanistan by Invitation!
Meanwhile, Turks, that came in to Afghanistan with Americans, are there to stay after the US pullout. The reasons for them to stay behind are numerous.
One, the Republic of Turkey is not a superpower unlike Brits, Russians and Americans have been. Currently, it is one of the fastest rising economic and military powers that is assuming regional responsibilities beyond its borders.
Two, Turks make up part of the demographic in Afghanistan. Half of Afghans have kingship with Turks and a large portion share Sunni Muslim faith. There are also some ethnic Turks living among Afghans.
Three, Turkey is the 17th Turkic state in history. Turkic states had always more outgoing second centuries. In 2023, the second century begins for this latest Turkic state. Turks may soon again be on a mission, as far as pursuit of “Kizil Elma!”
Fatal Mistake of America: Ignoring History Has Existential Consequences
Turks were invited to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Some “smart” Americans decided that they can ignore historical facts. They figured to go into Afghanistan behind Turks and then to forget how they came in.
Brits and Soviets recently lost their empires only because they tried to invade Afghanistan outright. At least, they did not try to double cross Turks and make two enemies in one place.
On top of that, today, there are still “ignorant” American elements that plan to stay behind in Afghanistan after the US troop pullout. American legacy will surely have dire consequences, consequently.
If nothing else, the Turkish forces, which are expected to remain in Afghanistan after the US pullout, will be more prudent. They will view the left-behind Western agents with suspicion.
In view of the relatively recent mayhem that was witnessed in Iraq, Syria and North Africa, Turks will not tolerate. Turks were not in the Arab Middle East in the twentieth century to observe and interfere Western mischief there. In Afghanistan, they will have political will and military capacity to act in the twenty first century.
Turks together with Russians and Chinese, in the worst case scenario, will even form a united front. Since they have a common interest in Central Asia, they will work together. Simply because recent international developments dictate that even though they have a bloody history among them, dating back centuries.
Key Reason for the Turkish Success
Turks always paid attention to history but they also respected geography. They, in other words, have “sense and sensibility.” They also have race and religion on their side.
Sense and Sensibility
To survive in Afghanistan, first, there needs to be “sense and sensibility.”
Geographically speaking, the Hindu Kush is an 800-kilometre-long mountain range that stretches through Afghanistan, from its center to Northern Pakistan and into Tajikistan. The range forms the western section of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region and is the westernmost extension of the Pamir Mountains, the Karakoram and the Himalayas.
No one in their right mind would venture with a military campaign in this environment. Like no one did in the Pyrenees or Alps, for example. There is a reason why Switzerland is never occupied by the mightiest armies. Didn’t Americans who visited these mountain ranges for touristic reasons put two and two together before venturing militarily in Afghanistan?
Historically, Turks never elected to fight in the Hindu Kush mountains. Unlike Brits, Russians and Americans, they limited their current military and policing activities in the northern half of the country where Kabul, the capital, is. Today, they are stationed in the most accommodating Kabul airport.
Race and Religion
Meanwhile, Turks surely benefit from the race and religious affinity they have with Afghans. They are a brethren race. Plus, both have Muslim faith. Some Afghans also speak dialects of Turkic language.
More importantly, Afghans and Turks are not whisky, wine or vodka drinkers like Brits, Russians and Americans. They are known to enjoy “Kimiz” in the past.
To put it into another perspective, Turks and Afghans drink their yogurt with salt. The rest of the Western civilization enjoys yogurt with a spoon and sugar.
Turks to Remain in Afghanistan
Establishment of the Turan State will become the ultimate goal for Turks in the region, if all else fails peacefully. Their stay in Afghanistan in that respect, in the early stages, will have two main reasons. One is to assure peace and prosperity in Central Asia. The other is to contribute to the global balance of power.
To Solidify Foothold
Turkish troops are in Afghanistan to bring peace and prosperity. From there, they can also project their ideals in Central Asia much better.
The region is dominated by states that have already formed a Turkic Council. Turkmenistan is planning to join it in 2021.
Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are the founding members together with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan joining them afterwards.
Hungary has observer status. Soon Finland, Latvia, Ukraine and others are also expected to come on board. They have populations that are flesh and blood with Turks.
The immediate goal of this Council is to build on the Turkic heritage and then to develop an economic union. In the long run, the region extending from Turkey to Eastern Turkmenistan (Xincan region of China) may also become one state, called the “Turan.”
To Establish a Balance of Power
The Turan State, when it comes into being, will surely create a new balance of power in Asia between China, India and Russia. In 2021, Turan may be a far-fetched idea to many in the West and big fear in the East.
Yet, for the members of the Turkic Council and others in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is a hope soon to be realized. They believe they will attain this goal with increased economic activity.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
That is why, many states along the BRI are enthusiastic to join the Chinese project. That is their plan to achieve prosperity. Some argue it is a double edged sword.
The Turkish Game Plan in Afghanistan
In 2021, when the US pulls out, the Turkish game plan in Afghanistan, mainly, will be to mediate. To that end, there would need to be a functioning government in Afghanistan. Keeping the Kabul airport open and secure, thus, is a priority for Turks.
This is a viable plan only because Turks have “sense and sensibility” and race and religion cards to play. They will focus on doing two things in Afghanistan. One, they will try to reign in the northern half of the country and leave the rest to come to terms on its own. Turks will not try to split the country into two. Rather they will focus on what they can effectively monitor and manage.
To that end, Turkey is sure to increase humanitarian and charitable aid to the Afghan government and people. Military and police forces will be the main beneficiaries but Turks will also build schools, hospitals, roads, and cultural and historical centers. In other words, The Turkish agency TIKA will be in full force at work, relying on state building expertise of past two thousand years.
Don’t Go to Afghanistan Uninvited: GameChanger
In the “ GameChanger “ I wrote, the US cannot remain the sole superpower of the world with two soft bellies. Since Turkey is an integral part of these soft bellies, the US must cooperate with Turkey at all times.
Turks has been maintaining a balance of power in the Middle East since the mids of the twentieth century. They have been counterbalancing Persians and Arabs. In Europe, they are doing the same thing against Russians and the European Union leading Germans, ever since 1991.
Hence, the US simply must not exacerbate potential problems in Central Asia because aggravating Turks will be against its vested interest. In the absence of Turkish cooperation in the Middle East and/or Europe, disaster will be inevitable for the Western Civilization.
The demographic changes in the next thirty years will be overwhelming. The world population will increase from 7.6 billion to 9.5 billion. Without “ New Turkey “ as the leader of the Muslim ummah, the West will be flooded with African and Asian, but mostly Muslim migrants.
On top of that, New Turkey will yearn for the Turan State sooner than later and with ferocity. All the while, the US and the rest of the West will need this Turan State, ironically, on its side.
Otherwise counterbalancing China, Russia and India will not be possible. Furthermore, the prospect of Turan State joining them in some quasi-union against the West will be unimaginable.
Demographic Card Like No Other
In the next thirty years, Afghanistan will have rapid population growth. It is eventually going to reach one hundred million people mark. Pakistan with about three hundred million will also exert tremendous presence in the region.
Considering there are also about four hundred million Turks spread across Central Asia and into Europe, all three brethren races will form a formidable union. Turkish forces remaining in and around Kabul,at this time, will ensure a steady and trusted hand in the region as a pressure valve to this mass of humanity.
Turkish State Tradition Like No Other
In other words, the two thousand year old Turkish state tradition will be in play in Afghanistan after the US pullout. For those that are clueless what that is, it simply means that Turks know how to govern by building institutions.
Through these institutions, Turks will stabilize life in northern Afghanistan without solely or primarily resorting to the military force. Unlike in the West, where brute force is first and foremost there to create order and authority where society functions.
The reverse takes place when Turks reign. That also means, Turks simultaneously take precautions against disrupters. Whether they may be local agents of the foreign powers or foreign agents themselves, they will face Turkish armed and police forces and institutional means as a counterforce.
In short, Turks will designate where they will play zero sum game one step at a time until they achieve their ultimate goal in the long run. That is how they will make sure that their stay in Afghanistan will deliver to Afghans and Turks alike in the long run.
Conclusion:
Don’t Go to Afghanistan Uninvited
But Also Don’t Stay There as an Afterthought
Simply put, if Turks were to stay in Afghanistan, at the Kabul Airport, no less, no one without proper invitation should attempt to enter the country. As for those contemplating to stay behind after the US pullout, the advice is: Don’t.
Staying in Afghanistan as an afterthought is the worst thing a Westerner can do at this time. Considering the mighty US Armed Forces has said: “Enough,” and is pulling out after twenty years, it is a futile effort.
The consequences of staying behind and interfering with the domestic affairs of Afghanistan are twofold for the sole superpower of the world. First, the US will lose the good will of Turks in Central Asia.
Considering the Globalist US Administrations between 1992 and 2016 already lost the Republic of Turkey, this loss will bring a double jeopardy. What is worse, China and Russia are lurking quietly to see how the US will misfire in their neck of the woods, again.
In the worst case scenario China, Russia and Turkey will move together. Yet, some believe the alternative may even be worse. Turkey, in full force, forging ahead with the Turan State will gain a momentum that will reverberate deep inside subcontinent and across Eurasia.
Turks will emerge as the dominant power of the twenty-first century on Planet Earth. Only because, the US was not supposed to go into Afghanistan in the first place! And then, only because it should not have left some “rogue” elements behind after the pullout.
Sometimes I wonder, when will these Globalits ever learn?
Originally published at https://erdoganandtrump.com on June 18, 2021.
